Technical Analysis & Stock Updates

Britannia Industries Ltd : Stock has closed at 714. It should see uptrend once it breaks resistance of 743. Immediate support is at 685 level. Hold with stop loss of 550.

Escorts Ltd : Technically chart appears to be promising. Expect uptrend in stock in weeks ahead. Hold with stoploss of 65.

Torrent Pharma : We recommended stock at 411 with stoploss of 395. Yesterday it had hit stoploss (closing 393). Though there had been short-term correct, we believe long term trend is still up. Stock has support at current level as well below it, with major support around 365 level. Invest in stock with stoploss of 317.

Tree House Education & Accessories: We are revising stoploss from 195 to 185.

  

Disclaimer:

Any purchase/sale of a stock involves a high degree of investment risk. Caution all investors that they may lose some or all of their investment if they decide to purchase any stock listed here.

Investment Ideas : Britannia Industries Ltd

With over 90 years of heritage, Britannia is among the oldest food companies in India. The Company operates in two business segments: bakery products, dairy products. Britannia is rated as the “Most Trusted Food Brand” by consumers across India in the annual survey done by Nielsen for The Economic Times in 2012.

FY 2012-13 saw some changes in roles of senior management people, along with active involvement by Mr Nusil Wadia & Mr Ness Wadia in company’s operation.

For quarter ending Jun-13, company’s consolidated revenue increased by 14% while profit increased by 93%. Commenting on the performance, Ms. Vinita Bali, Managing Director, said, “The expansion in margin is consequent to an improvement in product mix and higher price realization coupled with an emphasis on cost management – the growth momentum we saw in the 2nd half of last year, continued”.

Invest of medium term

Yearly Financials (Rs in Crore)

Quarterly Financials (Rs in Crore)

Disclaimer:

Any purchase/sale of a stock involves a high degree of investment risk. Caution all investors that they may lose some or all of their investment if they decide to purchase any stock listed here.

Investment Ideas : Escorts Ltd

Escorts Ltd, over six decades old company engage in manufacturing of agri-machinery, construction & material handling equipment, railway equipment and auto components.

Subsequent to appointment of Mr Nikhil Nanda as Joint Managing Director, company went through series of transformation like restructuring of business, rationalizing workforce, hiring professionals & focussing on higher horsepower premium market segment. These changes are getting reflected in company’s performance.  Company’s sale for Jun quarter increased by 16% while profit increased by 215%.

Invest for long term.

Yearly Financials (Rs in Crore)

Quarterly Financials (Rs in Crore)

Disclaimer:

Any purchase/sale of a stock involves a high degree of investment risk. Caution all investors that they may lose some or all of their investment if they decide to purchase any stock listed here.

Market Update : On the verge of fall

From the beginning of this year we have been pessimistic about market.

In Feb-13 we mentioned market is weak “Present market valuation is not cheap as it was in early 2012 especially considering slow down in economy.”

In May-13 we advice exit from underperformer stocks / stocks from weak sector / overvalued stocks.

In the past blog dated 07 Jul 2013 we mentioned

: market lack strong moment either side ( up or down)

: negative surprises are more likely

In subsequent period we observe

: Sensex which was at 19495 which saw rise to 20351 then fall to 18551 & pull back to 19382 & thereafter fall on last Friday.

: RBI come out with measure to control exchange rate.

Market is extremely weak at the moment. Below 18600, it can fall to 18200, 17800 , 17580, 17220. Post breakage of current support level, we expect notable fall.

Disclaimer:

Any purchase/sale of a stock involves a high degree of investment risk. Caution all investors that they may lose some or all of their investment if they decide to purchase any stock listed here.

Technical Analysis & Stock Updates

Tata Motors: We expected Company’s International business to come up with good result. Operating profit of Jaguar Land Rover Automotive for Jun-13 quarter increased by 28% while profit increased by 29%. On consolidated basis PBIT decrease by 8% due to weak domestic business. We advice to exit the counter.

Sun Pharmaceutical: Company has come out with outstanding numbers for Jun-13 quarter. Company’s consolidated sales increased by 31% while adjusted net profit increased by 56%. Expect further rise in stock. Hold with stop loss of 450.

Tree House Education: Company has come out with outstanding numbers for Jun-13 quarter. Company’s revenue increased by 47% while profit increased by 53%. Hold on with stop loss at 195 level.

Disclaimer:

Any purchase/sale of a stock involves a high degree of investment risk. Caution all investors that they may lose some or all of their investment if they decide to purchase any stock listed here.

Launching Technical Analysis & Periodical updates of Stocks

We keep updating stock market direction based on Technical Analysis on number of occasion when we expect change in direction of market. Most of time we find we had been able to predict market direction ahead of time. (http://atulgandhicom.blogspot.in/2013/07/yes-i-am-edge2invest.html)

We had also recommended various stocks on the basis of Fundamental Analysis. We find, we rarely give follow up or update Technical Analysis of stock. We recommended

: Wockhardt @ 1184 which saw rise to 2166 level & there after a fall to current level 401 (lower circuit)

: Yes Bank @ 408 which saw rise to 547 level & there after a fall to current level 299

Also there had been some stocks which are recommended based on Fundamental Analysis, never saw rise in price like APL Apollo, Talwalkar Better Fitness.

Though from time to time we had predicted market direction which helped to manage investments, we notice that updating Technical Analysis / Periodical updates of stocks would have been more beneficial. We are beginning with Technical Analysis & Periodical updates of stocks.

1)  Recommendation based on Fundamental Analysis

Recent recommendations

Torrent Pharma: We recommended stock in Jun-13 at Rs 411 (bonus adjusted). For Jun-13 quarter on year on year basis, company’s consolidated sales rise by 23% & profit by 44%. Stock is currently trading at 456. Hold with stop loss of Rs 395.

DCB bank : We recommended stock in Jun-13 at Rs 47.  Stock is technically weak below 47/ 48 level. Company has come out with good number for Jun-13 quarter. Company total income increased by 12% while profit by 26% quarter on quarter basis. Stock is doing well fundamentally. Wait till stock shows positive signs on chart.

HDFC ltd: We recommended stock in Jun-13 at Rs 834. Stock is currently trading at 798. Stock is technically weak & can come down to 760 level. Wait & watch whether it forms bottom at 760 or will further fall near 700 level. For Jun-13 quarter standalone company’s net interest income & profit increased by 17% year on year basis.

Tata Motors: Recently in Jun-13 we recommended at Rs 297 level. Bit riskier proposition, company’s domestic (Indian) business is not doing good while international business is getting good response. Riskier proposition is, can international show lead to overall healthy profit growth (even after offsetting domestic losses?) Hold with strict stop loss of 265.

Early 2013 recommendations

APL Apollo Tubes : We recommended stock in Feb-13 at Rs 205. Stock trend change to down after breaking support of Rs 176. Stock is currently trading at 145. Technically stock appears weak at the moment.

Talwalkars Better Value Fitness : We recommended stock in Feb-13 at Rs 173. Stock is weak below 155 levels. Currently trading at 129. We are positive about business model of company. Wait till stock shows positive signs on chart.

Sun Pharmaceutical : We recommended stock in Feb-13 at Rs 375 (bonus adjusted). Stock has been continuously rising. Stock is currently trading at 549. We may see consolidation happening in near future. Hold on with stop loss of 450.

Tree House Education: We recommended stock in Jan-13 at Rs 267. Company has come out with good numbers for Jun-13 quarter. Income has rise by 48% while profit rise by 53% year on year. Stock is doing well fundamentally. Stock is currently trading at 258, immediate support at 232. Hold on with stop loss at 200 -205 level.

Cairn India Ltd : We recommended stock in Jan-13 at Rs 341 level. Currently trading at Rs 291. Below 310 level stock is remain weak.

Year 2012 recommendations

Yes bank: We recommended stock in Oct-12 at 408 level. Subsequently stock has rallied to Rs 547. Stock trend change to down after breaking support of Rs 425. Stock is down over founder’s battle, for nomination right to appoint members on the bank board. Current price of stock is Rs 299. There are numerous supports below current price level till 230-250. We are positive about business model. Company has come out with good number for Jun-13 quarter, interest income rising by 27% while profit rising by 38%. Let’s wait for outcome of court battle.

Vivimed Labs : We recommended stock in Oct-12 at 335 level. Stock trend change to down after breaking support of Rs 320.

KPIT Cummins Infosystems : In Oct-12 we recommended to buy around 105-10 in future. For Jun-13 quarter company’s sales has grown by 14% while PBT rise by 17%. As stock rise further there will be selling pressure. Stock is currently trading at Rs 128. Stay invested with stop loss around 95/100.

Diamond Power Infrastructure: We recommended stock in Oct-12 at Rs 127 level. Stock trend change to down after breaking support of Rs 89.

Wockhardt Ltd : We recommended stock in Sep-12 at Rs 1184 which saw rise to Rs 2166. Stock trend change to down when it broken Rs 1500 support level. Subsequently we felt stock could bottom out at around 1000 / 1100 level based on management statement. Stock could not hold 1000 / 1100 level. Management informed that “The Company is taking all steps to address the concerns raised by USFDA and shall put all efforts to resolve the issue at the earliest” But subsequently USFDA issued warning letter stating “Your firm repeatedly delayed, denied, limited an inspection or refused to permit the FDA inspection” Company did not made content of warning letter available through “Corporate Announcement” A case study can be made for “Misleading Communication” by management.

Multi Commodity Exchange of India : We recommended stock post listing @ 1282. We saw softening commodity prices as well as political paralysis affecting economy, leading to unfavourable environment for stock to show revenue / profit growth.

Year 2011 recommendations

Jubilent Foodworks Ltd : Initially stock was recommended at the time of IPO. Stock was offered @ 145 listed @ 230. Recently in May-12 (stock price 1029), we had updated about slowdown in growth & opportunity to book partial / complete profit.  Subsequently stock fall to Rs 928, currently trading at 1135. For Jun-13 Quarter Company’s income grown by 26%, while profit rise by mere 5% year on year.

We do not see any strong up-move / down-move. Long term uptrend can be seen when stock breaks level of Rs 1275. Stop loss should be kept at 900.

2)  Our views on sudden stock crash / uncertainty: These updates were in nature of our views on particular news / events.

Satyam Computer: We had updates in Jan-2009 when Satyam’s share price saw steep fall from Rs 180. Stock was trading at Rs 23.  We predicted positive future for satyam valuing shares at Rs 55.64. Subsequently Tech Mahindra made open offer at Rs 58

Onmobile global: Stock had been falling from long time. We given updates when it was ruling @ 37 had seen rise to level Rs 50

Disclaimer:

Any purchase/sale of a stock involves a high degree of investment risk. Caution all investors that they may lose some or all of their investment if they decide to purchase any stock listed here.