Stock Market Advice ....Recommendations tells the story !!

I provide Long Term Equity Investment Advisory Service. Advice is based on Fundamental as well as Technical Analysis. I am writing blog since 2009 (Visit Edge2Invest.Blogspot.com)

I) Understanding About Market Direction:

Since 1994 I have been fond of Stock Market. Below is snapshot of my prediction of market direction (Source AtulGandhicom.blogspot.in)

  

II) Share Investment Adviced by me : 

I provide a paid investment advisory service. Only few recommendations are uploaded on blog. Below are some of recent investment ideas  (Source AtulGandhicom.blogspot.in)

Invest Relax & Keep Smiling

Happy Investing

Atul Gandhi

Website : www.AtulGandhi.com

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News Update : Torrent to Acquire Indian Branded Formulations Business of Elder pharmaceuticals

We believe Acquisition can be beneficial to company in long run.

News lack clarity about loan portion to finance deal & possible impact on operating profit. Email send to company requesting for more details remained unanswered by the time this blog is written.

We have concerns
1.        Acquisition may be substantially funded by loan, considering company will need to deploy lot’s of cash for Dahej expansion & working capital.
2.        Elder pharmaceuticals standalone sales for Jun-13 & Sep-13 quarter was weak on year on year as well quarter on quarter basis.
3.        As mentioned “Acquisition of business on a slump basis….. Elder will continue to manufacture and supply the products at its existing facilities for Torrent for a period of three years.” Elder pharmaceuticals may act as contract manufacturer….all product profit may not accrue to Torrent

Announcement has mentioned acquisition will be funded by internal accrual & bank borrowing. Company may have chosen to fund acquisition partially by raising money via equity instrument and or making payment to Elder in intervals / performance linked payment.

In long run company may be greatly benefited by Dehej expansion as well as acquisition. But there are lots of concerns about profitability post acquisition. We advice to exit from stock till more clarification comes in or impact on profitability can be seen.

Disclaimer:

Any purchase/sale of a stock involves a high degree of investment risk. Caution all investors that they may lose some or all of their investment if they decide to purchase any stock listed here.

Market update: Silver lining (Optimism) continues…Beginning of new era

Wish you all readers Happy Diwali & Happy Investing

In the previous blog on 15^th Sep we had mentioned “If market can hold 19000+level till month end…….optimistic hope for future…..ample numbers of stocks are appearing positive.”

Sensex was at 19732, which saw fall to 19379 at Sep end…& thereafter it is rising.

We had mentioned couple of stocks for investment on this blog. Most of which had appreciated.

In coming few months market will see valuation discounting for FY 2014-15 numbers…..also there will be volatility for

: Lot’s of FII inflow is leading current rally…FII usually tends to sell on negative news

: Fed tapering of stimulus

: Election happening in 2014…..

Market tends to overstretch itself in up-move as well as down-move creating situation of undervaluation or overvaluation…..in previous blog we advised for investment….may be the upcoming rally will give opportunity to reshuffle portfolio.

Beginning / foundation for new era

In 1990-1998 we saw Sensex making top around 4000+ level & falling thereafter….1995 /1996 to 2000 we saw a major rally in software stocks….from 2003 to early 2008 we saw bull market….

….In Apr-2009 we mentioned on blog about uptrend (Mousam Badal Raha hai….Marekt is changing itsDirection) in market (Sensex 10803) …..followed by blog in Jan-2011 (Sensex 18860) we updated change in direction to down (Mousam badal raha hai …. Reorientationrepositioning ….unfolding mystery)…..we believe currently market is at major junction which can mark / make foundation for new era -new beginning…..

Disclaimer:

Any purchase/sale of a stock involves a high degree of investment risk. Caution all investors that they may lose some or all of their investment if they decide to purchase any stock listed here.

Technical Analysis & Stock Updates

Talwalkars Better Value Fitness:  On 05-Aug-13, we had mentioned “We are positive about business model of company. Wait till stock shows positive signs on chart.”  Stock is appealing for investment. Invest at current level Rs 136.50 or at correction in coming days with stoploss of 108.

Britannia Industries Ltd: Stoploss raise from Rs 550 to Rs 650.

Escorts Ltd: Stoploss raise from Rs 65 to Rs 76.

Jubilant Foodworks Ltd: Stoploss raise from Rs 900  to Rs 950.

Disclaimer:

Any purchase/sale of a stock involves a high degree of investment risk. Caution all investors that they may lose some or all of their investment if they decide to purchase any stock listed here.

Technical Analysis & Stock Updates

Pidilite Industries Limited: We had recommended stock at Rs 240.  Stock is currently trading at Rs 262 having immediate support around Rs 250. Stoploss can be kelp at Rs 215.

Larsen & Toubro Limited: We had recommended stock at Rs 240. Stoploss can be placed at Rs 720.

Bajaj Finance Ltd: We had recommended stock at Rs 1151. Stoploss can be placed at Rs 1000.

Indusind bank: We had recommended stock at Rs 400. Stoploss can be placed at Rs 340.

Kaveri Seeds: We had recommended stock at Rs 1538. Stock has support at Rs 1493-1460-1412.  Stoploss can be placed at Rs 1230.

Disclaimer:

Any purchase/sale of a stock involves a high degree of investment risk. Caution all investors that they may lose some or all of their investment if they decide to purchase any stock listed here.

Investment Idea: Kaveri Seeds

Kaveri Seed Company Limited is a premium National Seed Company engaged in the production and distribution of high quality hybrid seeds of field & vegetable crops, micro nutrients and bio-products. Kaveri Seed, with vast experience spanning for more than three decades in the seed and agri-business. Company has got listed in the stock exchange in 2007. Since then, it has grown at a rapid pace on the strength of its knowledge driven products.

For Jun-13 quarter Company’s net sale increased by 53% while profit increased by 61%.

Invest for medium term

Yearly Financials (Rs in Crore)

Quarterly Financials (Rs in Crore)

Disclaimer:

Any purchase/sale of a stock involves a high degree of investment risk. Caution all investors that they may lose some or all of their investment if they decide to purchase any stock listed here.

Market Update: Changing dynamics with silver lining

In previous blog on 18^th Aug we mentioned “market is weak & below 18600, it can fall to 18200, 17800 , 17580, 17220…. we expect notable fall.” Subsequently on 28^th Aug we saw market hitting intraday low of 17448 level.

Afterwards market saw strong uptrend, Sensex touching high of 20055. If market can hold 19000+level till month end, we can see consolidation happening in near future along with optimistic hope for future. From investment prospective, ample numbers of stocks are appearing positive.

Invest in instalment. Invest with stop loss. Happy investing.

Disclaimer:

Any purchase/sale of a stock involves a high degree of investment risk. Caution all investors that they may lose some or all of their investment if they decide to purchase any stock listed here.

Investment Ideas: Indusind Bank

IndusInd Bank, which commenced operations in 1994, caters to the needs of both consumer and corporate customers. Its technology platform supports multi-channel delivery capabilities. As on June 30, 2013, IndusInd Bank had 530 branches, and 1003 ATMs spread across 380 geographical locations in India.

For Jun-13 quarter company’s net interest income up by 40 % while profit after tax up by 42%. Company’s net NPA stood at 0.21%.

Invest for long term.

Yearly Financials (Rs in Crore)

Quarterly Financials (Rs in Crore)

Disclaimer:

Any purchase/sale of a stock involves a high degree of investment risk. Caution all investors that they may lose some or all of their investment if they decide to purchase any stock listed here.

Technical Analysis & Stock Updates

Yes Bank: In previous blog we had mentioned “Current price of stock is Rs 299. There are numerous supports below current price level till 230-250. We are positive about business model.” Subsequently stock made a low of Rs 225.9 (on close basis) & rebound happened. Currently stock is trading at Rs 281. Invest in stock with stop loss of Rs 208 (close basis)

DCB bank : In Previous blog we mentioned “ Stock is technically weak below 47/ 48 level ……. Stock is doing well fundamentally. Wait till stock shows positive signs on chart.” Stock is currently traded at 45. Invest in stock with stop loss of 37 (close basis)

Disclaimer:

Any purchase/sale of a stock involves a high degree of investment risk. Caution all investors that they may lose some or all of their investment if they decide to purchase any stock listed here.

Investment Ideas: Bajaj Finance Ltd

Bajaj Finance Limited is a diversified non-banking financial company. Company operate in three business segments Consumer Finance, SME Finance & Commercial Lending. Consumer finance includes : 2 Wheeler and 3 Wheeler Finance, Consumer Durables, Personal Loan Cross Sell, Salaried Personal Loans & Co-branded Credit Card. SME Finance includes: Loan Against Property, Home Loans, Working Capital Loans, & Loan Against Securities. Commercial Lending includes Construction Equipment Finance,  Infrastructure Finance, & Auto Component Manufacturer Financing. Company is largest two-wheeler lender, largest consumer durables lender in India. 

For Jun-13 quarter company’s total income increased by 33% , while profit after tax increased by 27%. Capital adequacy ratio stood at 21.5% & net non-performing assets (net NPA)  at 0.25% of its total loan book. Company has applied for Banking Licence.

Invest for long term

Yearly Financials (Rs in Crore)

Quarterly Financials (Rs in Crore)

Disclaimer:

Any purchase/sale of a stock involves a high degree of investment risk. Caution all investors that they may lose some or all of their investment if they decide to purchase any stock listed here.

Investment Ideas: Larsen & Toubro Limited

Founded in 1938, Larsen & Toubro Limited (L&T) is one of the largest and most respected companies in India’s private sector, with global operations and turnover exceeding USD 14 billion. The company has business interests in Hydrocarbon, Heavy Engineering, Construction, Power, Electrical & Automation, Machinery & Industrial Products, Information Technology, Financial Services, Shipbuilding, & Railway Projects. A strong, customer–focused approach and the constant quest for top-class quality have enabled L&T to attain and sustain leadership in its major lines of business over seven decade. Larsen & Toubro is ranked the world’s 9th Most Innovative Company by Forbes International.

For Jun-13 quarter standalone company’s sales increased by 5% year on year while profit was down by 12%.

Invest for long term

Yearly Financials (Rs in Crore)

Quarterly Financials (Rs in Crore)

Disclaimer:

Any purchase/sale of a stock involves a high degree of investment risk. Caution all investors that they may lose some or all of their investment if they decide to purchase any stock listed here.

Investment Ideas: Pidilite Industries Limited

Since its inception in 1959, Pidilite Industries Limited has been a pioneer in consumer and specialties chemicals in India. Company’s product range includes Adhesives and Sealants, Construction and Paint Chemicals, Automotive Chemicals, Art Materials, Industrial Adhesives, Industrial and Textile Resins and Organic Pigments and Preparations.

Pidilite Industries is the market leader in adhesives and sealants, construction chemicals, hobby colours and polymer emulsions in India. Pidilite is also growing it's International presence through acquisitions and setting up manufacturing facilities and sales offices in important regions around the world.

Pidilite's most famous product is the Fevicol range of adhesives. Its other famous brands are Dr. Fixit, Cyclo, Ranipal, Hobby Ideas, M-seal and Acron

For Jun-13 quarter company’s consolidate sale has grown by 12% while net profit grown by 26%

Invest for long term.

Consolidated Yearly Financials (Rs in Crore)

Consolidated Quarterly Financials (Rs in Crore)

Disclaimer:

Any purchase/sale of a stock involves a high degree of investment risk. Caution all investors that they may lose some or all of their investment if they decide to purchase any stock listed here.

Technical Analysis & Stock Updates

Britannia Industries Ltd : Stock has closed at 714. It should see uptrend once it breaks resistance of 743. Immediate support is at 685 level. Hold with stop loss of 550.

Escorts Ltd : Technically chart appears to be promising. Expect uptrend in stock in weeks ahead. Hold with stoploss of 65.

Torrent Pharma : We recommended stock at 411 with stoploss of 395. Yesterday it had hit stoploss (closing 393). Though there had been short-term correct, we believe long term trend is still up. Stock has support at current level as well below it, with major support around 365 level. Invest in stock with stoploss of 317.

Tree House Education & Accessories: We are revising stoploss from 195 to 185.

  

Disclaimer:

Any purchase/sale of a stock involves a high degree of investment risk. Caution all investors that they may lose some or all of their investment if they decide to purchase any stock listed here.

Investment Ideas : Britannia Industries Ltd

With over 90 years of heritage, Britannia is among the oldest food companies in India. The Company operates in two business segments: bakery products, dairy products. Britannia is rated as the “Most Trusted Food Brand” by consumers across India in the annual survey done by Nielsen for The Economic Times in 2012.

FY 2012-13 saw some changes in roles of senior management people, along with active involvement by Mr Nusil Wadia & Mr Ness Wadia in company’s operation.

For quarter ending Jun-13, company’s consolidated revenue increased by 14% while profit increased by 93%. Commenting on the performance, Ms. Vinita Bali, Managing Director, said, “The expansion in margin is consequent to an improvement in product mix and higher price realization coupled with an emphasis on cost management – the growth momentum we saw in the 2nd half of last year, continued”.

Invest of medium term

Yearly Financials (Rs in Crore)

Quarterly Financials (Rs in Crore)

Disclaimer:

Any purchase/sale of a stock involves a high degree of investment risk. Caution all investors that they may lose some or all of their investment if they decide to purchase any stock listed here.

Investment Ideas : Escorts Ltd

Escorts Ltd, over six decades old company engage in manufacturing of agri-machinery, construction & material handling equipment, railway equipment and auto components.

Subsequent to appointment of Mr Nikhil Nanda as Joint Managing Director, company went through series of transformation like restructuring of business, rationalizing workforce, hiring professionals & focussing on higher horsepower premium market segment. These changes are getting reflected in company’s performance.  Company’s sale for Jun quarter increased by 16% while profit increased by 215%.

Invest for long term.

Yearly Financials (Rs in Crore)

Quarterly Financials (Rs in Crore)

Disclaimer:

Any purchase/sale of a stock involves a high degree of investment risk. Caution all investors that they may lose some or all of their investment if they decide to purchase any stock listed here.

Market Update : On the verge of fall

From the beginning of this year we have been pessimistic about market.

In Feb-13 we mentioned market is weak “Present market valuation is not cheap as it was in early 2012 especially considering slow down in economy.”

In May-13 we advice exit from underperformer stocks / stocks from weak sector / overvalued stocks.

In the past blog dated 07 Jul 2013 we mentioned

: market lack strong moment either side ( up or down)

: negative surprises are more likely

In subsequent period we observe

: Sensex which was at 19495 which saw rise to 20351 then fall to 18551 & pull back to 19382 & thereafter fall on last Friday.

: RBI come out with measure to control exchange rate.

Market is extremely weak at the moment. Below 18600, it can fall to 18200, 17800 , 17580, 17220. Post breakage of current support level, we expect notable fall.

Disclaimer:

Any purchase/sale of a stock involves a high degree of investment risk. Caution all investors that they may lose some or all of their investment if they decide to purchase any stock listed here.

Technical Analysis & Stock Updates

Tata Motors: We expected Company’s International business to come up with good result. Operating profit of Jaguar Land Rover Automotive for Jun-13 quarter increased by 28% while profit increased by 29%. On consolidated basis PBIT decrease by 8% due to weak domestic business. We advice to exit the counter.

Sun Pharmaceutical: Company has come out with outstanding numbers for Jun-13 quarter. Company’s consolidated sales increased by 31% while adjusted net profit increased by 56%. Expect further rise in stock. Hold with stop loss of 450.

Tree House Education: Company has come out with outstanding numbers for Jun-13 quarter. Company’s revenue increased by 47% while profit increased by 53%. Hold on with stop loss at 195 level.

Disclaimer:

Any purchase/sale of a stock involves a high degree of investment risk. Caution all investors that they may lose some or all of their investment if they decide to purchase any stock listed here.

Launching Technical Analysis & Periodical updates of Stocks

We keep updating stock market direction based on Technical Analysis on number of occasion when we expect change in direction of market. Most of time we find we had been able to predict market direction ahead of time. (http://atulgandhicom.blogspot.in/2013/07/yes-i-am-edge2invest.html)

We had also recommended various stocks on the basis of Fundamental Analysis. We find, we rarely give follow up or update Technical Analysis of stock. We recommended

: Wockhardt @ 1184 which saw rise to 2166 level & there after a fall to current level 401 (lower circuit)

: Yes Bank @ 408 which saw rise to 547 level & there after a fall to current level 299

Also there had been some stocks which are recommended based on Fundamental Analysis, never saw rise in price like APL Apollo, Talwalkar Better Fitness.

Though from time to time we had predicted market direction which helped to manage investments, we notice that updating Technical Analysis / Periodical updates of stocks would have been more beneficial. We are beginning with Technical Analysis & Periodical updates of stocks.

1)  Recommendation based on Fundamental Analysis

Recent recommendations

Torrent Pharma: We recommended stock in Jun-13 at Rs 411 (bonus adjusted). For Jun-13 quarter on year on year basis, company’s consolidated sales rise by 23% & profit by 44%. Stock is currently trading at 456. Hold with stop loss of Rs 395.

DCB bank : We recommended stock in Jun-13 at Rs 47.  Stock is technically weak below 47/ 48 level. Company has come out with good number for Jun-13 quarter. Company total income increased by 12% while profit by 26% quarter on quarter basis. Stock is doing well fundamentally. Wait till stock shows positive signs on chart.

HDFC ltd: We recommended stock in Jun-13 at Rs 834. Stock is currently trading at 798. Stock is technically weak & can come down to 760 level. Wait & watch whether it forms bottom at 760 or will further fall near 700 level. For Jun-13 quarter standalone company’s net interest income & profit increased by 17% year on year basis.

Tata Motors: Recently in Jun-13 we recommended at Rs 297 level. Bit riskier proposition, company’s domestic (Indian) business is not doing good while international business is getting good response. Riskier proposition is, can international show lead to overall healthy profit growth (even after offsetting domestic losses?) Hold with strict stop loss of 265.

Early 2013 recommendations

APL Apollo Tubes : We recommended stock in Feb-13 at Rs 205. Stock trend change to down after breaking support of Rs 176. Stock is currently trading at 145. Technically stock appears weak at the moment.

Talwalkars Better Value Fitness : We recommended stock in Feb-13 at Rs 173. Stock is weak below 155 levels. Currently trading at 129. We are positive about business model of company. Wait till stock shows positive signs on chart.

Sun Pharmaceutical : We recommended stock in Feb-13 at Rs 375 (bonus adjusted). Stock has been continuously rising. Stock is currently trading at 549. We may see consolidation happening in near future. Hold on with stop loss of 450.

Tree House Education: We recommended stock in Jan-13 at Rs 267. Company has come out with good numbers for Jun-13 quarter. Income has rise by 48% while profit rise by 53% year on year. Stock is doing well fundamentally. Stock is currently trading at 258, immediate support at 232. Hold on with stop loss at 200 -205 level.

Cairn India Ltd : We recommended stock in Jan-13 at Rs 341 level. Currently trading at Rs 291. Below 310 level stock is remain weak.

Year 2012 recommendations

Yes bank: We recommended stock in Oct-12 at 408 level. Subsequently stock has rallied to Rs 547. Stock trend change to down after breaking support of Rs 425. Stock is down over founder’s battle, for nomination right to appoint members on the bank board. Current price of stock is Rs 299. There are numerous supports below current price level till 230-250. We are positive about business model. Company has come out with good number for Jun-13 quarter, interest income rising by 27% while profit rising by 38%. Let’s wait for outcome of court battle.

Vivimed Labs : We recommended stock in Oct-12 at 335 level. Stock trend change to down after breaking support of Rs 320.

KPIT Cummins Infosystems : In Oct-12 we recommended to buy around 105-10 in future. For Jun-13 quarter company’s sales has grown by 14% while PBT rise by 17%. As stock rise further there will be selling pressure. Stock is currently trading at Rs 128. Stay invested with stop loss around 95/100.

Diamond Power Infrastructure: We recommended stock in Oct-12 at Rs 127 level. Stock trend change to down after breaking support of Rs 89.

Wockhardt Ltd : We recommended stock in Sep-12 at Rs 1184 which saw rise to Rs 2166. Stock trend change to down when it broken Rs 1500 support level. Subsequently we felt stock could bottom out at around 1000 / 1100 level based on management statement. Stock could not hold 1000 / 1100 level. Management informed that “The Company is taking all steps to address the concerns raised by USFDA and shall put all efforts to resolve the issue at the earliest” But subsequently USFDA issued warning letter stating “Your firm repeatedly delayed, denied, limited an inspection or refused to permit the FDA inspection” Company did not made content of warning letter available through “Corporate Announcement” A case study can be made for “Misleading Communication” by management.

Multi Commodity Exchange of India : We recommended stock post listing @ 1282. We saw softening commodity prices as well as political paralysis affecting economy, leading to unfavourable environment for stock to show revenue / profit growth.

Year 2011 recommendations

Jubilent Foodworks Ltd : Initially stock was recommended at the time of IPO. Stock was offered @ 145 listed @ 230. Recently in May-12 (stock price 1029), we had updated about slowdown in growth & opportunity to book partial / complete profit.  Subsequently stock fall to Rs 928, currently trading at 1135. For Jun-13 Quarter Company’s income grown by 26%, while profit rise by mere 5% year on year.

We do not see any strong up-move / down-move. Long term uptrend can be seen when stock breaks level of Rs 1275. Stop loss should be kept at 900.

2)  Our views on sudden stock crash / uncertainty: These updates were in nature of our views on particular news / events.

Satyam Computer: We had updates in Jan-2009 when Satyam’s share price saw steep fall from Rs 180. Stock was trading at Rs 23.  We predicted positive future for satyam valuing shares at Rs 55.64. Subsequently Tech Mahindra made open offer at Rs 58

Onmobile global: Stock had been falling from long time. We given updates when it was ruling @ 37 had seen rise to level Rs 50

Disclaimer:

Any purchase/sale of a stock involves a high degree of investment risk. Caution all investors that they may lose some or all of their investment if they decide to purchase any stock listed here.

Yes, I am AtulGandhi.com

Market Update

In previous blog dated 18th may 2013 ( http://atulgandhicom.blogspot.in/2013/05/market-update-advantage-of-rising-market.html), we advice exit from underperformer stocks  / stocks from weak sector / overvalued stocks. We also hinted for       sharp correction in market. In subsequent period sensex saw a sharp correction from 20443 to 18467

Currently market is lacking strong momentum in either side. Underlying Indian economy is not doing well. Positive surprises are less probable while there may be negative surprises considering prolong weakness in economy as well as pre-election (freebie program) announcements foreseeing election in next year.

We advice for invest in installments with optimum cautious & strict stop loss.

Disclaimer:

Any purchase/sale of a stock involves a high degree of investment risk. Caution all investors that they may lose some or all of their investment if they decide to purchase any stock listed here.