Cox & King

The Cox & Kings brand has evolved over 250 years of history and today is one of the recognised holiday brands that caters to the overall travel needs of Indian and international travellers. 

The core business of Cox & Kings is the sale of packages for leisure travel where two or more components of travel, such as flights, hotels, car rentals, transfers and ground handling services, are bundled together in advance and sold to customers.

Cox & Kings has broad international presence and reach with subsidiaries in the UK, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, the US, the UAE, Germany, Hong Kong, Greece and Singapore. Cox & Kings provides four key service offerings: leisure travel, corporate travel, visa processing and foreign exchange.

Company has grown at fast space in past

Financial

Dec Quarter result

Dec-11 quarter loss was mainly by reason of acquisition. Cox & King acquires Holidaybreak plc for GBP 323.43 million

Holidaybreak is an education and activity travel group listed on the London Stock Exchange. Holidaybreak provides educational and activity trips for school children as well as worldwide adventure holidays, short breaks in the UK and Europe, and mobile-home and camping holidays on sites throughout Europe. The group has three operating divisions: Education and Adventure, Hotel Breaks and Camping, which have leading positions in the UK and other major European markets, and has more than 15 long-established and widely recognised brands.

Business of Holidaybreak is seasonal. Typically it shows loss in Oct to Mar period & profit in Apr to Sept period.

Cox & King may show loss for FY 2011-12 due to

1. Due to seasonal nature of business Holidaybreak likely see loss in Q4 ending Mar-12.

2. Company has borrowed heavily for acquisition.

Debt Status

Mar-11 Cox & King  : 844 crore

Sep-11 Cox & King : 1335 crore

Sep-11 Prometheon Holdings (UK) Ltd (SPV of HBR) : 941 crore

There is also risk of integration of Holidaybreak with Cox & King.

As loss has been declared in Dec-11 quarter, market sentiment is down. In future price may come down as loss may be declared in FY 2011-12.

We are not recommending buy at current valuation. But any further decline in future will be tempting opportunity.

Disclaimer: 
Any purchase/sale of a stock involves a high degree of investment risk. Caution all investors that they may lose some or all of their investment if they decide to purchase any stock listed on this

Multi Commodity Exchange of India ( MCX India)

Multi Commodity Exchange of India

MCX was the fifth largest commodity exchange, among all the commodity exchanges considered in the Futures Industry Association survey, in terms of the number of contracts traded for the six months ended June 30, 2011

MCX holds a market share of over 80%* (87.3% during the nine months ended December 31, 2011 and 82.4% in FY2011) of the Indian commodity futures market

Financials

There is no comparable listed company in Indian stock market

MCX financial pattern is very different from manufacturing / software outsourcing company.

In manufacturing company raw material & processing cost constitute major element of cost & can be said as some proportionate of sales. While in software outsourcing company, employee cost & infrastructure set up cost constitute major element of cost & can be said as some proportionate of sales.

Now if we look at MCX financial :

: Sales has grown at say 30 to 40% per anum

: Expenses has grown at 7% to 18% per anum

Other income has come down from 153 crore in FY 2009 to 79 crore in Mar-11. Due do this we have not seen profit after tax rising at fast pace

MCX will continue to grow. Incremental sales will likely see very high growth in profit after tax in future

Invest for long term good return

Disclaimer: 
Any purchase/sale of a stock involves a high degree of investment risk. Caution all investors that they may lose some or all of their investment if they decide to purchase any stock listed on this

Israel and Iran: Growing Tensions

We come across news:  Israel's possibility to strike Iran’s nuclear facility.

I think it’s easier to predict market than predicting war. If we look from our background, we (India) and its neighbour do have nuclear capacity along with tension in relationship.  Israel does not share border with Iran and I believe there is no explicit statement given by Iran that it will strike Israel. I personally not convinced rational behind it.

Stock Market update

Since beginning of year 2011 we expected downtrend in market. We were anticipating market around 14,000 though in reality sesex come down to 15135 (intraday low 20^th dec 2011)

A very strong rally started in Jan-12, with higher volume has taken sensex to the high of 18500 in Feb-12. Current rally nullifies the last year downtrend & will prepare for base for uptrend. 


Rally also conveys formation for strong support at 15000 nifty 4600 in any unforeseen negative events. 

This rally happened at very fast pace. We will see further correction. This correction will give lots of buying opportunity for long term investment

Disclaimer: 
Any purchase/sale of a stock involves a high degree of investment risk. Caution all investors that they may lose some or all of their investment if they decide to purchase any stock listed on this 

Decisive downside major breakout by market 05-Aug-2011

With respect to previous blog on market in mid Jan-11 market did slide. It has taken a support at 17463 closing basis (or 17295 intraday low) in the month of Feb-11. It has moved up to 19800 in Apr-11.

Past

Trouble begin in earlier May-11 . Market has reacted almost 100% from feb-apr-11 rally. Technically this was not a good sign.

Present

Lots of dullness was seen in market subsequently. Market has given clear downside breakout in early Aug-11

Future

Market will likely have a notable fall in coming time. With the reverse stop loss at 18000, probable next support range for sensex 14500-13000 & nifty 4400-4000


Disclaimer:
Any purchase/sale of a stock involves a high degree of investment risk. Caution all investors that they may lose some or all of their investment if they decide to purchase any stock listed on this

Mousam badal raha hai …. Reorientation repositioning ….unfolding mystery

Looking back ... last two years there is one way up movement in market ….. Market has reached almost all time high …. & now sliding down

Strong support

Some panic selling expected to continue & market will slide down further ….comparing with last time fall of 2009, market hold considerable good support zone between 18000 & 17500 ….will see a lots struggle (Kabhi down toh kabhi up : daily or intraday) between bulls & bears at support zone in coming few months

Extreme support

….though there are numerous strong till 15750 in case something tremendous go wrong in world….prima facie market may not below 17000…

Unfolding mystery …. In coming months

…if market makes base at support zone, next rally it will break previous all time high & will make touch 24000 & more ( premature time to comment) …. & offshore there will be good buying opportunities in support zone for medium term in coming months

Indian economy is doing good except food inflation caused by some @##%!# factors …. Global economy outcome come to know when there are some burst happens …. Over a period most of countries has printed notes in huge volumes & I think some economist need to predict down side of printing currency.

Watch very closely support zone

enjoy

Disclaimer:

Any purchase/sale of a stock involves a high degree of investment risk. Caution all investors that they may lose some or all of their investment if they decide to purchase any stock listed on this