OnMobile Global Ltd : Reading between the lines

News in media:-
1) “misappropriation of money at OnMobile” 
2) "weak corporate governance"

Reading between the lines:- 

OnMobile is profit making company with consolidated sale rise @ 18% in FY 11 & FY 12. 

1) Misappropriation may have resulted in higher expenses / higher assets valuation in past. In future balance sheet will be clean & company can deliver higher profit margins.

2) We will see improvement in “corporate governance”, leading to higher valuation in future.

Disclaimer: 
Any purchase/sale of a stock involves a high degree of investment risk. Caution all investors that they may lose some or all of their investment if they decide to purchase any stock listed here.

Positive Side of Crises - Opportunities Unlimited

New we read : 

•  Political paralysis takes India's GDP to a nine-year low  
•  India’s fiscal deficit ballooned to 5.9 percent
•  RBI to continue tight liquidity stance till inflation eases
•  Soaring crude oil prices are the biggest risk
•   Corruption in India are major concerns -  2G spectrum scam, the Commonwealth Games scam and the Adarsh Housing Society scam, Coal Mining Scam
•  The current economic picture of the globe looks hazy as the euro zone crisis concerns persist
•  The rupee hit a record low against the dollar, hurt by dollar demand
•  & Market is down

Positive side - growth measure

There is willingness to act on growth measure.

Ruling coalition has accepted there are problems. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has sought to assure investors of every step, including reforms, to restore confidence on India while also hoping for higher growth, lower inflation and correction in the depreciating rupee

Spain bank bailout has been agreed in quick time. Greece crisis remained in news for prolong time as compared with Spain bank bailout.  Thanks, Spain bank bailout is not dragged for long time.

Italy’s Monti Says EU Must Adopt More Aggressive Growth Measure.

EU Leaders To Call For ‘Further Urgent Measures’ On Growth : The 27-nation bloc will pursue growth measures at a time when, in the words of European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, “there is no inflation risk in any European country” and the ECB will continue to provide liquidity to the banking system. Draghi is working with EU President Herman Van Rompuy, Luxembourg’s Jean-Claude Juncker and European Commission President Jose Barroso on a blueprint for further integration of the 17-nation euro region.

All news has been there and is discounted in market.

                                                                         

We have seen market touching low around 15200 in last dec-11. Since last six month though circumstance were negative, market did not broke dec-11 low.

Attractive valuation

We don’t say there will not be any more bad news in market

We don’t claim there is no further downside in market. 

What we see is Valuation …. Valuation is getting attractive. We advice to invest in installment / over a period in market. Keep buying stocks at every dip.

Happy investing

Enjoy

Disclaimer: 
Any purchase/sale of a stock involves a high degree of investment risk. Caution all investors that they may lose some or all of their investment if they decide to purchase any stock listed here.

Cox & King

The Cox & Kings brand has evolved over 250 years of history and today is one of the recognised holiday brands that caters to the overall travel needs of Indian and international travellers. 

The core business of Cox & Kings is the sale of packages for leisure travel where two or more components of travel, such as flights, hotels, car rentals, transfers and ground handling services, are bundled together in advance and sold to customers.

Cox & Kings has broad international presence and reach with subsidiaries in the UK, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, the US, the UAE, Germany, Hong Kong, Greece and Singapore. Cox & Kings provides four key service offerings: leisure travel, corporate travel, visa processing and foreign exchange.

Company has grown at fast space in past

Financial

Dec Quarter result

Dec-11 quarter loss was mainly by reason of acquisition. Cox & King acquires Holidaybreak plc for GBP 323.43 million

Holidaybreak is an education and activity travel group listed on the London Stock Exchange. Holidaybreak provides educational and activity trips for school children as well as worldwide adventure holidays, short breaks in the UK and Europe, and mobile-home and camping holidays on sites throughout Europe. The group has three operating divisions: Education and Adventure, Hotel Breaks and Camping, which have leading positions in the UK and other major European markets, and has more than 15 long-established and widely recognised brands.

Business of Holidaybreak is seasonal. Typically it shows loss in Oct to Mar period & profit in Apr to Sept period.

Cox & King may show loss for FY 2011-12 due to

1. Due to seasonal nature of business Holidaybreak likely see loss in Q4 ending Mar-12.

2. Company has borrowed heavily for acquisition.

Debt Status

Mar-11 Cox & King  : 844 crore

Sep-11 Cox & King : 1335 crore

Sep-11 Prometheon Holdings (UK) Ltd (SPV of HBR) : 941 crore

There is also risk of integration of Holidaybreak with Cox & King.

As loss has been declared in Dec-11 quarter, market sentiment is down. In future price may come down as loss may be declared in FY 2011-12.

We are not recommending buy at current valuation. But any further decline in future will be tempting opportunity.

Disclaimer: 
Any purchase/sale of a stock involves a high degree of investment risk. Caution all investors that they may lose some or all of their investment if they decide to purchase any stock listed on this

Multi Commodity Exchange of India ( MCX India)

Multi Commodity Exchange of India

MCX was the fifth largest commodity exchange, among all the commodity exchanges considered in the Futures Industry Association survey, in terms of the number of contracts traded for the six months ended June 30, 2011

MCX holds a market share of over 80%* (87.3% during the nine months ended December 31, 2011 and 82.4% in FY2011) of the Indian commodity futures market

Financials

There is no comparable listed company in Indian stock market

MCX financial pattern is very different from manufacturing / software outsourcing company.

In manufacturing company raw material & processing cost constitute major element of cost & can be said as some proportionate of sales. While in software outsourcing company, employee cost & infrastructure set up cost constitute major element of cost & can be said as some proportionate of sales.

Now if we look at MCX financial :

: Sales has grown at say 30 to 40% per anum

: Expenses has grown at 7% to 18% per anum

Other income has come down from 153 crore in FY 2009 to 79 crore in Mar-11. Due do this we have not seen profit after tax rising at fast pace

MCX will continue to grow. Incremental sales will likely see very high growth in profit after tax in future

Invest for long term good return

Disclaimer: 
Any purchase/sale of a stock involves a high degree of investment risk. Caution all investors that they may lose some or all of their investment if they decide to purchase any stock listed on this

Israel and Iran: Growing Tensions

We come across news:  Israel's possibility to strike Iran’s nuclear facility.

I think it’s easier to predict market than predicting war. If we look from our background, we (India) and its neighbour do have nuclear capacity along with tension in relationship.  Israel does not share border with Iran and I believe there is no explicit statement given by Iran that it will strike Israel. I personally not convinced rational behind it.

Stock Market update

Since beginning of year 2011 we expected downtrend in market. We were anticipating market around 14,000 though in reality sesex come down to 15135 (intraday low 20^th dec 2011)

A very strong rally started in Jan-12, with higher volume has taken sensex to the high of 18500 in Feb-12. Current rally nullifies the last year downtrend & will prepare for base for uptrend. 


Rally also conveys formation for strong support at 15000 nifty 4600 in any unforeseen negative events. 

This rally happened at very fast pace. We will see further correction. This correction will give lots of buying opportunity for long term investment

Disclaimer: 
Any purchase/sale of a stock involves a high degree of investment risk. Caution all investors that they may lose some or all of their investment if they decide to purchase any stock listed on this